Trap City

I know what you are thinking.  You think you have the easiest bet of the entire season with the Portland Trailblazers -4.  You think you are just going to run through the sports book tonight like a greased up dolphin made of 100% pure testosterone.  I am here to tell you that you may want to rethink this one because the Trailblazers are not a great bet tonight.

I am not going to bring up the fact that I saved your ass last Wednesday Night when I told you NOT to bet the Houston Rockets -8.5 like everybody else.  I have way too much integrity for that kind of nonsense.  If I was at a job interview right now and the interviewer asked me what my biggest flaw is, I would have to say that I have too much integrity.  It's a curse.

Anyways, a lesser man could also point to last Tuesday's article about the Portland Trailblazers -3.5/-4 not being a good bet but I am fairly confident I can get through this article without bringing that up.  Tonight's official Shark line on this game is Denver -6.  We are talking official shit here coming right from the Shark's mouth.

These dirty ass books shaded this line 2 points and they still got a majority of the bets on the Trailblazers.  What a fucking world!  Portland backers have completely forgotten that the Nuggets have nobody on their team that can keep their opponents in the game like Russell Westbrook which is why the Trailblazers came out of that series.  The books knew public perception would cause bettors to back the Trailblazers no matter what number they through out.  So what are you supposed to do about it?  Easy.

The simple answer is don't bet the side.  Even if you are down big and need to catch up tonight before settle up day tomorrow.  Even if you get blacked out drunk and Portland ends up being +4.5 which I think will happen.  Just leave it alone.  This looks exactly like the type of game that will easily take 2 years off of your life.  And that is if you win the bet.  You are most likely going to watch the Blazers get beat by 6+ and nobody wants to see that shit.  Nobody.  If you have to get down, take a look at the total and fight your way out of your hole that way.  Let's EAT!!

Don't Fall For It

I hate to say I told you so (not really, I LOVE saying that shit), but I told you the Portland Trailblazers -3.5/-4 last night was a trap.  I will be honest, I wanted to bet the Trailblazers -3.5 so bad when I first saw that line.  We all know in an elimination game, Russell Westbrook would do a handful of things to get his team eliminated, and he did, but it still was not enough to get a Trailblazers cover.  It was the old rock and a hard place, bet the Trailblazers even though you know it is a trap or bet the Thunder even though Russell Westbrook is going to take 30+ shots.  In the end the Thunder barely covered, but those are not the kind of bets smart people look for.

If you are betting the Rockets -8.5 tonight, you are living the Trap Life and you need to get some help.  Here is a rule I live by when it comes to sports betting and I almost never tell anyone about it. (I am typing this really quietly so let's just keep this between us) The rule is, everybody is always wrong.  You can take that to the bank.  What that means is, if "everyone" is on one side, like say 82% of the people, then either take the other side or leave the game alone.  You don't need this kind of nonsense in your life. 

   

82% of the early wagers on the Jazz/Rockets game have come in on the Rockets and the books moved them from -8.5 to -8.  I can tell you right now, only a meth head would think betting the Rockets is a good move after knowing this.  Still, by the time this game tips off, the Rockets will be back up to -9 or even higher because guys just can't help but bet a favorite.  It is a disease, like gonorrhea.  You just hate to see it.

Now can the Rockets win this game?  Fuck yeah, that is why this is a trap.  I can see a scenario where they win by 30.  It would not surprise me a bit.  I can also see them losing the game straight up.  You see, you don't bet because a game is on, you bet because there is a "bad" line.  This line and the movement after it's release suggests a play on the Jazz or nothing.  I can't condone a play on the Jazz so it's nothing for me.  You would be smart to wait for live options or maybe a play on the total.

Russ Can't Win

My eyes got pretty big when I woke up this morning and saw that the Blazers were only favored by 3.5 tonight at home against the hapless Thunder.  For one thing, we have the better team, at home, looking to closeout a series.  To make matters better, we have the ultimate mook playing point guard for the Thunder in Russell Westbrook.  He is exactly what you want to see on the other side of the court if you are betting the Trailblazers.  My guess is he will blow this game long before the 4th quarter but even if this thing is close, he is the kind of player that will be heaving up three pointers at the end of the game even though he can't shoot.  With the Trailblazers only having to cover 3.5 points so this should be a lock, right?

Not so fast.  I checked Sportsinsights to see the ticket number on this game, I realized that almost 80% of the tickets were on Portland yet some books even moved the line down to -3.  That is a recipe for disaster.  Just ask the mooks that took the Rockets last night at -3 even though 80+% of the tickets were on them and they opened at +2.  Imagine taking a team -3 when you could have had them +2 a few hours before.  It's a dirty game we play and most of the people who play it are idiots.

Even though the Trailblazers have now moved to -4 behind 86% of the bets, I am still off of the bet.  For one, the overnight line moves are more important to me since that is normally "sharp" money.  Second, I consider "everybody" to be on one side when the ticket count is 85% or higher.  There is a rule in betting that I live by and it goes like this, EVERYBODY IS ALWAYS WRONG!  Write that shit down, it is good to remember.

So the side is off limits, but what about the total?  Even though only one game has gone Over in the series and the Thunder look like a youth team trying to score, the number is still a little high for me.  I don't know how you value money but there is not a chance in hell I am backing a Russell Westbrook team in the playoffs, on the road to function offensively like an NBA team.  You might as well take that cash and get a hooker and some blow.  It will be better for you.  I am also not touching the Under because of the early line movement on the Thunder.

So you read all this and there is no pick?  WTF is that?  Here is the thing, I just saved your drunk ass from betting just to bet.  You know as well as I do that you are going to get blackedout drunk tonight, lose your ass on the early games and look to "get back" on this late game.  You are going to look at the Trailblazers and think they are a lock when I don't think this is a spot that you can hammer them.  What happens if Westbrook tears his ACL in the first quarter and the Thunder are forced to have guys who can actually shoot, take shots?  You would be fucked.  And that is just one scenario.  I am telling you now, this game is a trap, walk away and save your cash for a better spot.