Don't Fall For It

I hate to say I told you so (not really, I LOVE saying that shit), but I told you the Portland Trailblazers -3.5/-4 last night was a trap.  I will be honest, I wanted to bet the Trailblazers -3.5 so bad when I first saw that line.  We all know in an elimination game, Russell Westbrook would do a handful of things to get his team eliminated, and he did, but it still was not enough to get a Trailblazers cover.  It was the old rock and a hard place, bet the Trailblazers even though you know it is a trap or bet the Thunder even though Russell Westbrook is going to take 30+ shots.  In the end the Thunder barely covered, but those are not the kind of bets smart people look for.

If you are betting the Rockets -8.5 tonight, you are living the Trap Life and you need to get some help.  Here is a rule I live by when it comes to sports betting and I almost never tell anyone about it. (I am typing this really quietly so let's just keep this between us) The rule is, everybody is always wrong.  You can take that to the bank.  What that means is, if "everyone" is on one side, like say 82% of the people, then either take the other side or leave the game alone.  You don't need this kind of nonsense in your life. 

   

82% of the early wagers on the Jazz/Rockets game have come in on the Rockets and the books moved them from -8.5 to -8.  I can tell you right now, only a meth head would think betting the Rockets is a good move after knowing this.  Still, by the time this game tips off, the Rockets will be back up to -9 or even higher because guys just can't help but bet a favorite.  It is a disease, like gonorrhea.  You just hate to see it.

Now can the Rockets win this game?  Fuck yeah, that is why this is a trap.  I can see a scenario where they win by 30.  It would not surprise me a bit.  I can also see them losing the game straight up.  You see, you don't bet because a game is on, you bet because there is a "bad" line.  This line and the movement after it's release suggests a play on the Jazz or nothing.  I can't condone a play on the Jazz so it's nothing for me.  You would be smart to wait for live options or maybe a play on the total.