My eyes got pretty big when I woke up this morning and saw that the Blazers were only favored by 3.5 tonight at home against the hapless Thunder. For one thing, we have the better team, at home, looking to closeout a series. To make matters better, we have the ultimate mook playing point guard for the Thunder in Russell Westbrook. He is exactly what you want to see on the other side of the court if you are betting the Trailblazers. My guess is he will blow this game long before the 4th quarter but even if this thing is close, he is the kind of player that will be heaving up three pointers at the end of the game even though he can't shoot. With the Trailblazers only having to cover 3.5 points so this should be a lock, right?
Not so fast. I checked Sportsinsights to see the ticket number on this game, I realized that almost 80% of the tickets were on Portland yet some books even moved the line down to -3. That is a recipe for disaster. Just ask the mooks that took the Rockets last night at -3 even though 80+% of the tickets were on them and they opened at +2. Imagine taking a team -3 when you could have had them +2 a few hours before. It's a dirty game we play and most of the people who play it are idiots.
Even though the Trailblazers have now moved to -4 behind 86% of the bets, I am still off of the bet. For one, the overnight line moves are more important to me since that is normally "sharp" money. Second, I consider "everybody" to be on one side when the ticket count is 85% or higher. There is a rule in betting that I live by and it goes like this, EVERYBODY IS ALWAYS WRONG! Write that shit down, it is good to remember.
So the side is off limits, but what about the total? Even though only one game has gone Over in the series and the Thunder look like a youth team trying to score, the number is still a little high for me. I don't know how you value money but there is not a chance in hell I am backing a Russell Westbrook team in the playoffs, on the road to function offensively like an NBA team. You might as well take that cash and get a hooker and some blow. It will be better for you. I am also not touching the Under because of the early line movement on the Thunder.
So you read all this and there is no pick? WTF is that? Here is the thing, I just saved your drunk ass from betting just to bet. You know as well as I do that you are going to get blackedout drunk tonight, lose your ass on the early games and look to "get back" on this late game. You are going to look at the Trailblazers and think they are a lock when I don't think this is a spot that you can hammer them. What happens if Westbrook tears his ACL in the first quarter and the Thunder are forced to have guys who can actually shoot, take shots? You would be fucked. And that is just one scenario. I am telling you now, this game is a trap, walk away and save your cash for a better spot.
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